Search results for [Election forecasting] at NC Cardinal

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The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail-- but some don't / by Silver, Nate,1978-(CARDINAL)401158;

Includes bibliographical references (pages 459-514) and index.A Catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em ... -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you.Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction.1260L

Subjects: Forecasting.; Forecasting; Forecasting; Bayesian statistical decision theory.; Knowledge, Theory of.;

Strength in numbers : how polls work and why we need them / by Morris, G. Elliott(George Elliott),author.;

Includes bibliographical references (pages 182-194) and index.Democracy and the public will -- Polling comes of age -- Machine politics -- One bad apple doesn't spoil the bushel -- America in aggregate -- Big data and black boxes -- Taking the pulse of the pulse of democracy."An insightful exploration of political polling and a bold defense of its crucial role in a modern democracy. Public opinion polling is the ultimate democratic process; it gives every person an equal voice in letting elected leaders know what they need and want. But in the eyes of the public, polls today are tarnished. Recent election forecasts have routinely missed the mark and media coverage of polls has focused solely on their ability to predict winners and losers. Polls deserve better. In Strength in Numbers, data journalist G. Elliott Morris argues that the larger purpose of political polls is to improve democracy, not just predict elections. Whether used by interest groups, the press, or politicians, polling serves as a pipeline from the governed to the government, giving citizens influence they would otherwise lack. No one who believes in democracy can afford to give up on polls; they should commit, instead, to understanding them better. In a vibrant history of polling, Morris takes readers from the first semblance of data-gathering in the ancient world through to the development of modern-day scientific polling. He explains how the internet and "big data" have solved many challenges in polling-and created others. He covers the rise of polling aggregation and methods of election forecasting, reveals how data can be distorted and misrepresented, and demystifies the real uncertainty of polling. Candidly acknowledging where polls have gone wrong in the past, Morris charts a path for the industry's future where it can truly work for the people. Persuasively argued and deeply researched, Strength in Numbers is an essential guide to understanding and embracing one of the most important and overlooked democratic institutions in the United States"--

Subjects: Public opinion polls; Social surveys;

Ultimatum / by Glass, Matthew,1954-(CARDINAL)367729;

November 2032. Joe Benton has just been elected the forty-eighth president of the United States. Only days after winning, Benton learns from his predecessor that previous estimates regarding the effect of global warming on rising sea levels have been grossly underestimated. For the United States, a leading carbon emitter for decades, the prospects are devastating: thirty million coastal-dwelling citizens will need to be relocated; Miami will be washed into the ocean and southern California will waste away to desert; the relocation process will cost trillions of dollars. With the world frighteningly close to catastrophe, Benton opts to abandon multilateral negotiations in the Kyoto 4 summit and resumes secret bilateral negotiations with the Chinese?the world?s worst polluter. As the two superpowers lock horns, the ensuing battle of wits becomes a race against time. Ultimatum is a visionary and deeply unsettling thriller that explores the most pressing issue of the twenty-first century?the future of our planet?and boldly predicts the way the world will be in twenty-five years.

Subjects: Political fiction.; Global environmental change; World politics;

Lost in a Gallup : polling failure in U.S. presidential elections / by Campbell, W. Joseph,author.(CARDINAL)424250;

Includes bibliographical references and index.Introduction : of pollsters, journalists, and presidential elections -- Of poll-bashing journalists and the 'Babe Ruth' of survey research -- 'A time of polls gone mad' : the literary digest debacle of 1936 -- 'The defeat of the pollsters' : the epic fail of 1948 -- A tie 'would suit them fine' : the 1952 landslide pollsters did not foresee -- The 'close race that never happened' : miscalling the 1980 election -- 'Television's version of "Dewey defeats Truman" ' : the trifecta of 2000 -- 'President Kerry' : exit polls misfire in 2004 -- 'Gallup vs. the world' : pointing the wrong way in 2012 -- 'The night that wasn't supposed to happen' : the shock election of 2016 -- Conclusion : will it happen again?"Donald Trump's unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election brought sweeping criticism of election polls and poll-based statistical forecasts, which had signaled that Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Surprise ran deep in 2016, but it was not unprecedented. Lost in a Gallup examines in lively and engaging fashion the history of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in American presidential elections. Drawing on archival sources, W. Joseph Campbell presents insights on notable pollsters of the past, including George Gallup, Elmo Roper, Archibald Crossley, Warren Mitofsky, and Louis Harris. The story is one of media failure, too, as journalists invariably take their lead from polls in crafting campaign narratives. Lost in a Gallup describes how numerous prominent journalists-including Edward R. Murrow, Jimmy Breslin, Mike Royko, Christopher Hitchens, and Haynes Johnson-were outspoken poll-bashers and critics. In assessing polling's messy, uneven, and controversial past, Campbell emphasizes that although election polls are not always wrong, their inherent drawbacks invite skepticism and wariness. Readers will come away better prepared to weigh the efficacy and value of pre-election polls in presidential races, the most important and highly anticipated of all American elections"--

Subjects: Presidents; Elections; Voting; Press and politics; Political campaigns; Presidential candidates;

Blowback : a warning to save democracy from the next Trump / by Taylor, Miles(Security expert),author.(CARDINAL)874770;

Includes bibliographical references and index.The faction -- The deputy -- The judge -- The assembly -- The shield -- The sword -- The citizen -- The angel."Donald Trump will be president again, whether he is on the ballot or not. That is because Trumpism is overtaking the Republican Party and will mount a vigorous comeback, potentially in the hands of a savvier successor--The Next Trump. This prophecy will come true, according to Miles Taylor, if we do not learn the lessons of the recent past. With the 2024 election approaching, the formerly "Anonymous" official is back with bombshell revelations and a sobering national forecast. Through interviews with dozens of ex-Trump aides and government leaders, Taylor predicts what could happen inside "Trump 2.0," the White House of a more competent and more formidable copycat."--

Subjects: Informational works.; Trump, Donald, 1946-; Republican Party (U.S. : 1854- ); Democracy; Radicalism; Fascism; Political stability; Transparency (Ethics) in government; Citizenship; Right-wing extremists;

Budgeting in North Carolina local governments / by Afonso, Whitney,1981-editor.(CARDINAL)817012;

Includes bibliographical references.Introduction -- Local government budgeting: insights from a Budget Director -- Budgeting for operating and capital expenditures -- Balancing the budget -- Budgeting in economic downturns for local governments -- Evaluating government tax policy through the lenses of efficiency, equity, adequacy and feasibility -- Financial forecasting for budgeting -- The property tax and the revenue-neutral tax rate -- Fund balance and budgeting for local governments -- Capital planning -- Performance measurement and performance management -- Economic development -- Public school financing --Citizen engagement through the budget process -- The role of local elected officials in the budget process -- Communicating financial condition to elected officials in local government --Budget presentation: how format can improve decision-making.Budgets are more than simply accounting tools. They are legal documents that set the priorities, programs, and policies of a local government for the following fiscal year. This textbook covers critical considerations for those who work with budgets in North Carolina. Topics range from citizen engagement in the budget process to performance management to economic development--Back cover.

Subjects: Local budgets; Local budgets; Local finance; Local government;

The index of self-destructive acts / a novel / by Beha, Christopher,author.(CARDINAL)492953;

"The day Sam Waxworth arrives in New York to write for The Interviewer, a street-corner preacher declares that the world is coming to an end. A sports statistician, data journalist, and newly minted media celebrity who correctly forecasted every outcome of the 2008 election, Sam's familiar with predicting the future. But when projection meets reality, things turn complicated. Sam's editor sends him to profile disgraced political columnist Frank Doyle. To most readers, Doyle is a liberal lion turned neocon Iraq war apologist, but to Sam he is above all the author of the great works of baseball lore that sparked Sam's childhood love of the game-books he now views as childish myth-making to be crushed with his empirical hammer. But Doyle proves something else in person: charming, intelligent, and more convincing than Sam could have expected. Then there is his daughter, Margo, to whom Sam becomes desperately attracted-just as his wife, Lucy, arrives from Wisconsin. The lives of these characters are entwined with those of the rest of the Doyle family-Frank's wife, Kit, whose investment bank collapsed during the financial crisis; his son, Eddie, an Army veteran just returned from his second combat tour; and Eddie's best childhood friend, hedge funder Justin Price. While the end of the world might not be arriving, Beha's characters are each headed for apocalypses of their own making"--

Subjects: Apocalyptic fiction.; Sports fiction.; Novels.; Journalists; Forecasting; Prophecy; Baseball stories.; Families;

The case for impeachment / by Lichtman, Allan J.,author.(CARDINAL)135668;

Includes bibliographical references (pages 239-290).High crimes and misdemeanors --The resignation of Richard Nixon: a warning to Donald Trump --Flouting the law --Conflicts of interest --Lies, lies, and more lies --Trump's war on women --A crime against humanity --The Russian connections --Abuse of power --The unrestrained Trump --Memo: the way out --The peaceful remedy of impeachmentProfessor Allan J. Lichtman, who has correctly forecasted thirty years of presidential outcomes, makes the case for impeaching the 45th president of the United States, Donald J. Trump. In the fall of 2016, Distinguished Professor of History at American University Allan J. Lichtman made headlines when he predicted that Donald J. Trump would defeat the heavily favored Democrat, Hillary Clinton, to win the presidential election. Now, in clear, nonpartisan terms, Lichtman lays out the reasons Congress could remove Trump from the Oval Office: his ties to Russia before and after the election, the complicated financial conflicts of interest at home and abroad, and his abuse of executive authority. The Case for Impeachment also offers a fascinating look at presidential impeachments throughout American history, including the often-overlooked story of Andrew Johnson's impeachment, details about Richard Nixon's resignation, and Bill Clinton's hearings. Lichtman shows how Trump exhibits many of the flaws (and more) that have doomed past presidents. As the Nixon Administration dismissed the reporting of Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein as "character assassination" and "a vicious abuse of the journalistic process," Trump has attacked the "dishonest media," claiming, "the press should be ashamed of themselves." Historians, legal scholars, and politicians alike agree: we are in politically uncharted waters-the durability of our institutions is being undermined and the public's confidence in them is eroding, threatening American democracy itself. Most citizens-politics aside-want to know where the country is headed. Lichtman argues, with clarity and power, that for Donald Trump's presidency, smoke has become fire--AMAZON.

Subjects: Trump, Donald, 1946-; Impeachments; Presidents; Misconduct in office;

Sixty days and counting : capital code, book 3 / by Robinson, Kim Stanley.(CARDINAL)356665;

By the time Phil Chase is elected president, the world's climate is far on its way to irreversible change. Food scarcity, housing shortages, diminishing medical care, and vanishing species are just some of the consequences. The erratic winter the Washington, D.C., area is experiencing is another grim reminder of a global weather pattern gone haywire: bone-chilling cold one day, balmy weather the next. But the president-elect remains optimistic and doesn't intend to give up without a fight. A maverick in every sense of the word, Chase starts organizing the most ambitious plan to save the world from disaster since FDR and assembling a team of top scientists and advisers to implement it. For Charlie Quibler, this means reentering the political fray full-time and giving up full-time care of his young son, Joe. For Frank Vanderwal, hampered by a brain injury, it means trying to protect the woman he loves from a vengeful ex and a rogue zblack opsy agency not even the president can control a task for which neither Frank's work at the National Science Foundation nor his study of Tibetan Buddhism can prepare him. In a world where time is running out as quickly as its natural resources, where surveillance is almost total and freedom nearly nonexistent, the forecast for the Chase administration looks darker each passing day. For as the last and most terrible of natural disasters looms on the horizon, it will take a miracle to stop the clock . . . the kind of miracle that only dedicated men and women can bring about.

Subjects: Thrillers (Fiction); Didactic fiction.; Global warming; Climatic changes; Scientists; Presidents; Legislators;

The tell : the little clues that reveal big truths about who we are / by Hertenstein, Matthew J.(CARDINAL)399309;

Includes bibliographical references (pages 221-253) and index.In the beginning. Primitive predictions -- The genes in all of us -- Strange situations: growing up in a thin-sliced world -- How we size up others. Who are you anyway? -- The targets of our attraction -- Love and lies. From dating to mating -- Detecting deception -- Making the grade: education, business, and politics. The power of enthusiasm -- Catching the cues of the cash cow -- Political punditry: any kid can do it -- The importance of predictive humility."What does a yearbook photo have to do with future marital success? Can the CEO's appearance tell you anything about a company's quarterly earnings? In The Tell, psychologist Matthew Hertenstein reveals that our intuition is surprisingly good at using small clues to make big predictions, and shows how we can make better decisions by homing in on the right details. Drawing on rigorous research in psychology and brain science, Hertenstein explains how to hone our powers of observation to increase our predictive capacities. By training ourselves to read facial and bodily cues, we can accurately predict everything from divorce rates to sexual preferences, election results to the likelihood of corporate success. A charming testament to the power of the human mind, The Tell will, to paraphrase Sherlock Holmes, show us how to notice what we see"--Provided by publisher.

Subjects: Body language.; Forecasting; Human behavior.;

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