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An incomplete guide to the future / by Harman, Willis W.(CARDINAL)135516;
Bibliography: pages 146-149.
Subjects: Economic forecasting.; Forecasting.;
Available copies: 1 / Total copies: 1
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The business environment of the seventies; a trend analysis for business planning / by Dunckel, Earl B.(CARDINAL)203126; Reed, William K.(CARDINAL)541484; Wilson, Ian(Ian Howard)(CARDINAL)136452;
Bibliography: pages 123-126.
Subjects: Economic forecasting.; Forecasting.;
Available copies: 1 / Total copies: 1
On-line resources: Suggest title for digitization;
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Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction / by Tetlock, Philip E.(Philip Eyrikson),1954-author.(CARDINAL)777873; Gardner, Dan,1968-author.(CARDINAL)490093;
Includes bibliographical references (pages 291-328) and index.An optimistic skeptic -- Illusions of knowledge -- Keeping score -- Superforecasters -- Supersmart? -- Superquants? -- Supernewsjunkies? -- Perpetual beta -- Superteams -- The leader's dilemma -- Are they really so super? -- What's next? -- Epilogue -- An invitation -- Appendix: Ten commandments for aspiring superforecasters."From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--
Subjects: Economic forecasting.; Forecasting.;
Available copies: 8 / Total copies: 10
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Has macro-forecasting failed? / by Zarnowitz, Victor,1919-2009.(CARDINAL)187763; National Bureau of Economic Research.(CARDINAL)148185;
Includes bibliographical references (pages 34-36).
Subjects: Economic forecasting.;
Available copies: 1 / Total copies: 1
On-line resources: Suggest title for digitization;
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Breakout nations : in search of the next economic miracle / by Sharma, Ruchir.(CARDINAL)399862;
The myth of the long run -- China's after-party -- The great Indian hope trick -- Is God Brazilian? -- Mexico's tycoon economy -- In Russia, there's room only at the top -- The sweet spot of Europe -- The monophonic voice of Turkey -- On the tiger road -- The gold medalist -- The endless honeymoon -- The fourth world -- After the ectasy, the laundry -- The third coming.The argument of "Breakout Nations" is that the astonishingly rapid growth over the last decade of the world's celebrated emerging markets is coming to an end. The era of easy money and easy growth is over. China, in particular, will soon slow, but its place will not necessarily be taken by Brazil, Russia or India.
Subjects: Economic forecasting.;
Available copies: 1 / Total copies: 1
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Outrageous fortunes : the twelve surprising trends that will reshape the global economy / by Altman, Daniel,1974-(CARDINAL)482280;
Includes bibliographical references and index.China will get richer, and then it will get poorer again -- The European Union will disintegrate as an economic entity -- The new colonialism will leave colonizers and colonized worse off in the long term -- Changing immigration policies in rich countries will worsen the brain drain from poor countries, even as they get richer -- The backlash against capitalism won't last, but it won't be replaced by political stability, either -- Americans will become the world's sales force -- As the global economy integrates, the middleman will win -- The collapse of the world trade organization will unlock new gains from trade -- A new set of lifestyle hubs will replace today's business hubs -- An enormous financial black market will arise outside of traditional centers -- Global warming will make rich countries cleaner and richer and poor countries dirtier and poorer -- The structure of political institutions will stop the world from solving its biggest problems.
Subjects: Economic forecasting.;
Available copies: 3 / Total copies: 3
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The modern forecaster : the forecasting process through data analysis / by Levenbach, Hans.(CARDINAL)157976; Cleary, James P.(CARDINAL)157977; Levenbach, Hans.Beginning forecaster.; Cleary, James P.Professional forecaster.;
Bibliography: pages 512-530.
Subjects: Economic forecasting.; Business forecasting.; Forecasting.;
Available copies: 1 / Total copies: 1
On-line resources: Suggest title for digitization;
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The future of capitalism : facing the new anxieties / by Collier, Paul,author.(CARDINAL)515462;
Includes bibliographical references (pages 217-228) and index.Part one: Crisis. The new anxieties -- Part two: Restoring ethics. The foundations of morality : from the selfish gene to the ethical group ; The ethical state ; The ethical firm ; The ethical family ; The ethical world -- Part three: Restoring the inclusive society. The geographic divide : booming metropolis, broken cities ; The class divide : having it all, falling apart ; The global divide : winners, and the left behind -- Part four: Restoring inclusive politics. Breaking the extremes.From world-renowned economist Paul Collier, a candid diagnosis of the failures of capitalism and a pragmatic and realistic vision for how we can repair it. Deep new rifts are tearing apart the fabric of the United States and other Western societies: thriving cities versus rural counties, the highly skilled elite versus the less educated, wealthy versus developing countries. As these divides deepen, we have lost the sense of ethical obligation to others that was crucial to the rise of post-war social democracy. So far these rifts have been answered only by the revivalist ideologies of populism and socialism, leading to the seismic upheavals of Trump, Brexit, and the return of the far-right in Germany. We have heard many critiques of capitalism but no one has laid out a realistic way to fix it, until now. In a passionate and polemical book, celebrated economist Paul Collier outlines brilliantly original and ethical ways of healing these rifts--economic, social and cultural--with the cool head of pragmatism, rather than the fervor of ideological revivalism. He reveals how he has personally lived across these three divides, moving from working-class Sheffield to hyper-competitive Oxford, and working between Britain and Africa, and acknowledges some of the failings of his profession. Drawing on his own solutions as well as ideas from some of the world's most distinguished social scientists, he shows us how to save capitalism from itself--and free ourselves from the intellectual baggage of the twentieth century.
Subjects: Capitalism; Economic forecasting.;
Available copies: 14 / Total copies: 14
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Outrageous fortunes [sound recording] the twelve surprising trends that will reshape the global economy / by Altman, Daniel,1974-(CARDINAL)482280; Hughes, William,1957-(CARDINAL)556913; Blackstone Audio, Inc.(CARDINAL)346395;
Read by William Hughes.As the world struggles to recover from the economic crisis, many are narrowly focused on forecasts for the next week, month, or quarter. Yet they should be asking what the global economy will look like in the coming years. Daniel Altman confronts this in his new book. The fate of the global economy will be determined by deeper factors than those that move markets from moment to moment. His incisive analysis brings together hidden trends, societal pressures, and policy endgames to make twelve surprising predictions about the years ahead. And his forecasts raise a pressing question: with so many challenges awaiting us, are our political and economic institutions up to the task? Outrageous Fortunes shows which industries will grow, which economies will crumble, which investments will pay off, and where the next big crisis may occur.System requirements: CD/MP3 player or PC with MP3-capable software.
Subjects: Audiobooks.; Economic forecasting.;
Available copies: 1 / Total copies: 2
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People first economics / by Ransom, David,1946-(CARDINAL)420086; Baird, Vanessa.(CARDINAL)640774;
Includes bibliographical references and index
Subjects: Economic policy.; Economic forecasting.;
Available copies: 1 / Total copies: 1
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Results 1 to 10 of 370 |